The Facebook Generation: A Rising Political Tide?

A brief history of the youth vote
When Congress extended the Voting Rights Act of 1965 in 1970 it contained a provision lowering the age qualification to vote in federal, state, and local elections, to 18. But the US Supreme Court ruled that Congress did not have the authority to lower the age qualification in state and local elections (Oregon v. Mitchell, 400 U.S. 112). Facing a problem wherein two sets of registration books would have to be maintained and looking at the expense of running separate election systems for federal elections and for all other elections, the states looked to Congress to establish a minimum age qualification at 18 for all elections.

With much fanfare, the 26th amendment to the US Constitution was ratified on July 1, 1971, standardizing the voting age to 18 – just in time for the contentious presidential race between Richard Nixon and George McGovern.

Prior to the adoption of the 26th amendment, citizens18 to 24-years-old represented the largest group of non-voters in America, according to the US Census Bureau. At the time, there was much speculation about how this new youth vote would impact elections. In 1972, McGovern lost. It turns out this new vote had a lot less impact than most thought, because this formerly disenfranchised group continued, in large part, to not vote. For example, in 1998, 19% of people 18-24 turned out to vote nationally, while 66% of those 25 and older turned out. In 2000, the youth turn-out was 36% and the older turnout was 63%. The youth vote fell dramatically in 2002 (19%), compared to 50% for older voters. The last national election in 2004 saw a turnout for the young at 47% and the older voter at 66%.

The Census Bureau reports that in 2004, the age category 18-24 represented 12% of the total population in in North Carolina, but only 8% of the voting population. In the 2004 presidential election 55% of North Carolina’s youth voted for Kerry and 44% voted for Bush.

To capture that elusive vote
This year, according to the media pundits, it will be different. The scales will fall from the eyes of the young and they will no longer be apathetic and uninterested in politics. Turnout will be strong and youth people will become a significant voting bloc.

There are some indications that younger voters are beginning to show up at the polls in larger and larger numbers. In presidential elections, the percentage of young Americans who voted in 2004 increased by from 36% in 2000 to 47% in 2004. The midterm elections saw an increase as well, though in less dramatic fashion. Young voter turnout increased three percentage points in 2006, up to 25.5 percent from 22.5 percent in the 2002 election.

CNN has reported that its exit polls show young voters turned out in record numbers in more than 20 states holding presidential primaries or caucuses in 2008. Compared to the primary elections in 2000 and 2004 the young vote doubled in some states, tripled in others, and even quadrupled in a few states.

According to CBS News, presidential candidate Senator Barack Obama netted 59% of young voters (under 30) on Super Tuesday this year. Senator Hillary Clinton, by contrast, got only 38% of these voters. Obama beat Clinton 64-33% among young males and 53-45% among young women.

In Tennessee, 140,000 young voters turned out on Super Tuesday, up from 35,000 in 2000. Georgia saw 280,000 young voters flock to the polls this year compared to 92,000 in 2000. More than 850,000 under 30 voters turned out in California, far exceeding the turnout in 2000 and 2004. Compared to 2000, the youth vote turnout tripled in Missouri, doubled in Massachusetts, doubled in Connecticut, and tripled in Oklahoma.

Citing voter turnout in the 2008 presidential primaries, most media outlets are portraying a young generation that is increasingly engaged in the electoral process and likely to be part of the system for years to come.

Campaigns are aggressively taking efforts to help bring young voters into the process. Eyeing the primary turnout and anticipating a tight general election, political strategists are turning to the Facebook generation to garner as many new votes as possible. In the 2008 presidential cycle, the country is experiencing an almost entirely new level of political campaigning as candidates utilize technology, such as the Internet, e-mail, messaging, and You Tube, to reach out to this new generation.

In addition to political campaigns and political parties, other organizations have emerged to promote youth registration and voting. For example, Rock the Vote is a 501(c)(3) non-profit, non-partisan organization founded in 1990. It seeks to involve young people in the political process by bringing the entertainment community and youth culture at the center of its activities. The organization was founded in Los Angeles in 1990 by Jeff Ayeroff. Rock the Vote's stated mission is to "build the political clout and engagement of young people in order to achieve progressive change in our country." The key word in this mission statement is “progressive.” Progressive is a code word for liberal.

Will all this activity pay political dividends in November? Probably not as much as the mainstream media would have us believe. A lot of the enthusiasm among the youth vote is based on idealism—not political reality. According to a recent Civitas Institute report, “The Myth of the Young Voter,” as of the 2008 primary, 18-25 year olds comprised only 11-percent of registered voters, despite intense voter-registration campaigns on college campuses. Less than half of these newly registered “youth voters” actually made it to the polls on primary election day. “Young people are participating more than they did four years ago, but they still have tremendous potential to do so much more,” said Bob Hall, executive director of Democracy North Carolina.

So will these new, much-touted young voters show up for the general election in November? History argues against it. Voter registration, especially that which can be accomplished conveniently on campus, doesn’t necessarily translate into actual voter turnout. It’s a long trek from the college dorm room to the polls. In 2008, young voters are said to be especially energized by the Obama campaign, but a recent rally at NCSU featuring free food & music and an appearance by actor Kal Penn drew only 100 students. As Hamish Patel, a 19-year-old sophomore from Morrisville told the News & Observer, “If it wasn't for Kal Penn, I don't know if I'd be here … but I strongly support Barack Obama.”

While it is true that once an individual gets into the habit of voting, it tends to last a lifetime, it takes some effort to establish that habit. Campaign 2008 is turning into an energetic blood bath by both parties, and as the campaigns drag on, idealistic youth may find that the candidate or candidates that attracted them to the political process in the first place are not as “pure” as they once thought.

Candidates tend to move toward the middle of the political spectrum going into the general election. This will not sit well with young ideological crusaders and their interest may wane. And young people don’t always understand why politicians do what they do. For example, while there is a general consensus that negative advertising is effective in influencing voter behavior, extreme partisanship and 15-second negative ads run against the grain of youthful idealism. It affirms the notion that all politicians are alike, that they care little about the “issues” and are only interested in pursuing their personal ambition.

This is not appealing to young people, unless, of course, they aspire to be politicians. Very few people, in any voting demographic, harbor this aspiration.

Updated September 12, 2008